Cong-NCP tie-up offsets saffron gains in LS polls

MUMBAI: Though the Shiv Sena-BJP combine has added a phenomenal 20 lakh votes to its 1999 statewide tally, its electoral gains in the state have been neutralised by the consolidation of the Congress-NCP votes.
While the Sena-BJP polled 125.8 lakh votes in 1999, it got 146 lakh votes this time. Yet, the saffron parties'' seat tally has actually shrunk from 28 in 1999 to 25.In fact, the vote share of the saffron combine has actually shot up in 31 out of 48 constituencies.
Despite this, they lost in 11 of them because of the Congress-NCP tie-up. Part of the increase in vote share can be explained by the growth in the number of voters. But percentagewise too, their vote share has grown from 38 per cent to over 42 per cent.
Statistics show that the anti-incumbency factor helped the Sena-BJP but this did not translate into winning mandate in most of the seats because of the consolidation factor.
In Kopergaon, a stronghold of Balasaheb Vikhe-Patil, the Shiv Sena actually performed marginally better than it did when it fielded Vikhe-Patil in 1999. This time, Vikhe-Patil stood on Congress symbol and won.
In one of the most stark cases, the Congress-NCP combination wiped out the Shiv Sena in Ichalkaranji though the latter recorded a quantumleap fromone lakh votes in 1999 to 3.2 lakh votes.
Likewise in Karad, the Sena got one lakh votes more than the last time but still lost to the NCP which got an additional 86,000 votes this time. The Sena ended up losing in Kolhapur with 3.87 lakh votes (against 1.63 in 1999) and in Satara (2.7 lakh votes against 1.88 in 1999).
Amravati posed a curious electoral puzzle where the Congress-NCP''s combined might did not work its magic. Though the Sena''s vote count dropped by over 1.15 lakh votes against its 1999 total, it retained the seat.
In Mumbai South-Central too, a 50,000 drop in vote count could not prevent Sena''s Mohan Rawle from winning, thanks to the split in votes among Arun Gawli (Akhil Bharatiya Sena) and Sachin Ahir (NCP).
The BJP, similarly lost Ahmednagar, which it held in 1999, though it polled 10,000 votes more. Sangli saw the BJP improve its tally from under a lakh to 2.2 lakh but it nevertheless lost to the Congress.
As it did in Pandharpur, an RPI bastion, after posting a gain of about one lakh votes. It lost to Dalit leader Ramdas Athavale whose score dropped from 4.13 lakh in 1999 to 3.47 lakh votes.
In Pune, BJP''s Pradip Rawat, who had won in 1999 with 3.04 lakh votes, polled just 4,000 short of that count but ended up losing to Congress'' Suresh Kalmadi. In Baramati too, the BJP has not really lost too many supporters.
It scored about the same number of votes (2.11 lakh) as it did in 1999 (2.12 lakh) but predictably lost to Maratha strongman Sharad Pawar.
The BJP suffered similar reverses in Nandurbar and Mumbai North. In Nandurbar, it got 2.44 lakh votes against 1.51 lakh votes last time and yet lost the seat to the Congress, while in Mumbai North, BJP stalwart Ram Naik''s vote share of 5.11 lakh was marginally less than his winning tally of 5.17 lakh in 1999.
Despite this, rival Govinda of the Congress romped home with whopping 48,000-vote margin.
Among the constituencies where the Sena-BJP alliance emerged victorious, it posted huge gains over its own score of 1999; Thane (over two lakh), Washim (1.14 lakh), Aurangabad (90,000), Khed (1.4 lakh), Parbhani (90,000) and, of course, Solapur (1.07 lakh votes), where the BJP candidate defeated CM Sushilkumar Shinde''s wife.
The Sena recorded a huge slide in Congress heavyweight A R Antulay''s constituency, Kulaba.
Its share dipped by 60,000 votes over last time while the BJP too had a shockingly poor showing in RSS heartland and Nitin Gadkari''s hometown, Nagpur, with its tally dipping from 3.52 lakh votes in 1999 to 2.74 lakh. They lost both seats.